Not surprised.

As a former employee (back in college) this story doesn't surprise me. It is the only job I have ever been fired from. They claimed the reason was because I played Peter Gabriel's Shock The Monkey on the job and since "monkey" is a well-known racist insult against Asians I was therefore a racist myself. I think it had to do with complaining about a lack of oversight. So I gotta say, I am pretty proud they fired me.

What blogometer tells me about you

Blog-o-meter tells me that you guys prefer the following in order:

1. No posts
2. Posts featuring nakid women with big feet
3. Political Posts
4. Posts making fun of Rob Campbell.

So, because I love you no posts tomorrow.

What statistics tells us about the Presidential race

My last post about the electibility argument for/against Obama & Clinton included the total number of votes cast for each of the remaining candidates both republican and democrat. What this tally shows is that both democratic candidates individually enjoy more current support from people who have actually voted than both republican candidates combined.

This indicates that both Obama and Clinton hold a massive advantage going into the general election over McCain. This is not the same thing as saying they will win. And, frankly that wasn't the point of my post. The point of my post was that both enjoy a massive structural advantage going into a general election.

Anon pointed out that Kerry also enjoyed a massive advantage over Bush and lost. To which I responded specifically to in comments but also wanted to elaborate on here. (And I am not sure Anon disagrees with the following, these are just clarifications that Anon's comment brought up in my mind).

1st: as I stated above, having a massive advantage now does not mean that either Dem candidate will win. There is plenty of time for either Obama or Clinton to manage to screw it all up by the general election. My point is that there is nothing inherent in either candidate that would indicate they can't win.

2nd: I don't remember any of the resources I use (mostly economists like Krugman and DeLong) actually asserting Kerry had an advantage. IIRC during the primary the consensus among economists who analyise this stuff is the Dean had the massive advantage becuase he was stronger on issues people would vote on. On the otherhand they felt Kerry was weak because the data indicated Democrats were primarily voting for him because of percieved electibilty rather than enthusiasm for his postisions, many of which likely dem voters did not feel comfortable with (like the vote to authorize force).

3rd: I don't really pay much attention to the polls. It seems like every election I can remember involves pundits pontificating on polls that turn out to be off by around 10% and then pontificating on what went wrong with the polls? How are they off by so much? Well, there have been several studies and analysis (as opposed to polls which aren't) as to why this is. The bottom line is that the GOP nationally has a 6% structural advantage in polls on average meaning that polls have consistently under-estimated the republican's share of the vote/support by 6%. by themselves, individually polls are historically all over the place. The studies also found that this is primarily due to voter suppression efforts (which, again, the GOP happily admits to so don't yell at me) and a powerful GOTV program. It doesn't hurt either that much of America is informed by talk radio which is decidedly republican in flavor. Will this hold true in 2008? well, see, that's the problem with polls. It's hard to figure out why they were right or wrong until after the fact and the foundation keeps shifting every election. It might be telling that Obama has consistently out-performed polls (except NH) by around 10% and has a massive GOTV operation.

4th: Polls are a snapshot of who people who are polled will vote for when the polls is taken. A large number of people make up their mind at the last minute and they generally vote party line despite identifying as independents or undecided. These people also tend not to vote based on TV ads so its hard to say how they'll vote until those ads hit the airwaves.

Having said all that, I think Clinton's recent statements trying to rebrand super-delegates as automatic-delegates and apparent strategy of giving up on the popular vote and aiming to win based on these super-delegates *is* exactly the kind of thing that could make her unelectable. Democrats have a strong advantage because their declared partisan support is so freakin high. But I think a lot of those partisans will not vote for Clinton if she pulls that stunt because it is precisely what they don't like about the republicans. And if Clinton looses that group I don't think that independent/undecideds will break democrat at some crazy rate. But that last part is my personal suspicion and should be considered in light of my incredible prediction rate (Patriots win Superbowl, Hawks beat GreenBay, GreenBay beats Giants, Edwards wins nomination, ect). The reality is there is no data that can tell us how undecided/independents will break beyond historic patterns because, by definition, the decide at the last minute.

To Mrs. Pdog

I guess it's academic now that Obama is on his way to the nomination but the evidence really just doesn't support the idea that either Obama or Clinton has an electibility problem. Obama may be more electible that Clinton but only in the sense that both would seemingly crush McCain.

And before anyone says that Clinton would draw out the base.. that number you see voting for McCain & Huckabee? That *is* the base. Clinton's negatives are driven by partisan Republicans and Democrats, not moderates/independents. Those Republicans aren't voting for either Obama or Clinton. And those Partisan dems will vote Clinton, they just won't like it.

My point is not that you should vote for Teh Awesome or Teh Clenis. Simply that at this point a slightly retarded monkey would probably pull more votes that McCain in the general. I know I've used that line before but I only repeat it because I am not joking.

Update 2/14 by way of comparison John Kerry recieved a *total* of 6,795,957 votes in the 2004 Democractic primary.

Interesting Strategy

Roger Clemens is on Capitol Hill helping congress deal with the earth shaking problem of illegal warrantless wiretapping... oh sorry.. performance enhancing drugs in baseball.

Anyway, it seems Pettite has claimed in a sworn deposition that Clemens told Pettite that Clemens had used HGH. Now as I read the transcript I can't help but notice that the logical conclussion of Clemen's tortured explanation of how Pettite is misremembering the conversation and not lying is that Pettite himself has never used HGH. Cause, you see, if Pettite had used HGH he would have talked to Clemens about it first.

When I just heard your statement and Andy's statement about that he also injected himself, I was shocked. I had no idea that Andy Pettitte had used HGH.

My problem with what Andy says, and why I think he misremembers is that if Andy Pettitte knew that I had used HGH or I had told Andy Pettitte that I had used HGH before he would use the HGH, what have you, he would have come to me and asked me about it. That's how close our relationship was.

And then, when he did use it, I'm sure he would have told me that he used it. And I say that for the fact that we also used a product called Hydroxycut and ThermaCore. It had ephedra in it, from what I understand to be a natural tree root. I believe ephedra was banned at some -- 2004, something of that nature. A player in Baltimore passed away because of it.

Andy and I talked openly about this product, and so there's no question in my mind that we would have talked -- if he knew that I had tried or done HGH, which I did not, he would have come to me to ask me those questions.

Setting aside the circular reasoning involved, this would only work as a defense if Clemen's were saying Pettite was lying. He's not. He's acknowledged that Pettite believed Clemens took HGH. He is arguing that Pettite's belief is based on a misunderstanding of a statement Clemens made about someone else.

Read here and see if you agree....

While you wait..

While you wait for new content here, go check out the new Gin Optics website.

Time to get serious

Since I have been making fun of all of you (and yes, your turn will come) I figured I should start training again. As you all know I've put on afew pounds over the last 7 months as I've focused on the family & Gin Optics. But I may have let it go to far.. so starting tomorrow it's back into serious fighting form!

Northwest Rider Profile: Rob Campbell

I know most of you are sitting on the edge of your seat waiting for my newest Northwest Team Review. But, I am gonna shake the apple cart. Today I am brining you the first in a series of Northwest Rider Profiles. Today's profile is of Rob Campbell.

While many people may remember Rob from the brief stint as a guest columnist for nwracereport.com I tend to think of him more for the great work he did shepparding those rampuctious kids from Walnut Grove through school after Mrs. Beadle-Sims left on maternity leave.



That's Rob for yah. Sure he may be telling you what a douche bag you are on the weekend, but when it comes to the kids he's a softy.

And in case you think that he is getting soft, especially with all those Idaho potatoes he has to eat as part of his Bobs-Bicycles.com contract rumor has it he has been bulking up in the weight room this off-season. So now when that elbow comes flying at your head it'll be backed by 195lbs of muscle.

Herriot Sports/Todd Herriott p/b TH

Todd Herriot is going to smack you up bitches. All you need to see: Todd's new team video. Are you on board with getting smacked up by TH? Cause you are either in or you are out.

My Endorsement

It was hard. But I finally decided. Because America has never been iller.

Team Tubbs Beater

I got this email yesterday from a faithful reader:

Dear PDog, I hate you and your stupid blog. Without its relentless sarcasm and mocking of the local cycling scene I am lost. Unless you post something now, preferably about Darth Tubbs, I will ride over to your house and make you babysit my kid. Oh, and my kid will spend the night telling you how fat you are. ~ Love Anon*

So today's Meet The Team features "Team Tubbs Beater p/b Hone's Thumpin' Car".




Now, I know what many of you are saying... Hone's car is running a team now? To be honest I can't be sure if anyone is drivin' Thumper because everytime it cruises down 520 in it's red and racked up glory my eardrums explode in pain. That's a kickin' Base Hone!

The rest of you are probably wondering why Tubbs, who famously killed 7 Hagens Berman Cat 3s last year with his bare hands, might join TTB pb/ HTC after the rumors of bad blood with Hone after Carnation**. Well, turns out Darth Tubbs has a price. And by my calculations, it is $75 for the season. Which would be funny if it wasn't $75 more than I have ever been paid to race my bike.

And rumor has it that Hone is super cereal and done lost 20lbs. Well dude, I found your 20 lbs and leaving them on my stomach is not cool. Not. Cool. At. All.

Rest of the roster? Hainesworth Esq 3, Hall Monitor, The Ogle & Gardeener. Other I am sure. Now go fight each other in comments.

*edited for content.
**well, i read that on Teh Intertubes somewhere and if it's on Teh Intertubes it must be true. In fact I even found video of them going at it