Wednesday, February 13, 2008

To Mrs. Pdog

I guess it's academic now that Obama is on his way to the nomination but the evidence really just doesn't support the idea that either Obama or Clinton has an electibility problem. Obama may be more electible that Clinton but only in the sense that both would seemingly crush McCain.

And before anyone says that Clinton would draw out the base.. that number you see voting for McCain & Huckabee? That *is* the base. Clinton's negatives are driven by partisan Republicans and Democrats, not moderates/independents. Those Republicans aren't voting for either Obama or Clinton. And those Partisan dems will vote Clinton, they just won't like it.

My point is not that you should vote for Teh Awesome or Teh Clenis. Simply that at this point a slightly retarded monkey would probably pull more votes that McCain in the general. I know I've used that line before but I only repeat it because I am not joking.

Update 2/14 by way of comparison John Kerry recieved a *total* of 6,795,957 votes in the 2004 Democractic primary.


At Wednesday, February 13, 2008 8:33:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Were these numbers provided by the same statistical geniuses that said Kerry was going to win in a landslide fashion?

At Thursday, February 14, 2008 10:30:00 AM, Blogger P-Dog said...

I guess I don't know who you think is a statistical genius? Every credible resource I read (and I generally stop reading ones that aren't credible) had the Kerry v. Bush election about right. Of course I tend towards economists since they are trained in regression analysis and tend to understand statistical trends etc.

If you are talking about pundits/polls there is a long established tendency of democratic candidates to perform about 6 points below the national poll numbers.

A lot of this is structural. One major factor is that the GOP has had a stronger GOTV operation in recent years than the dems. That trend seems to be changing.

Another is, frankly, voter suppression. Republicans have aggresively used their control of varioius Sec of State offices to supress votes in areas thought to be democratic. Now before anyone gets uppity about that I suggest you first get uppity with the GOP cause they *gleefully* admit to this. Their position is that it is legal and therefore ok. The GOP is *proud* of it's vote suppresion tactics precisely because they feel it proves they are playing to win and the Dems aren't.


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