While we are talking about falling off our bikes...

So it's that time of the year were the cycling know-it-alls (like me) make our tour predictions only to be humiliated by our wrongness.

I have such a bad track record at these that I have tried avoiding it.. but every time I don't post a prediction it turns out right prompting me to post one which turns out wrong.

Case in point.. yesterday I suggested to Stoked-As-Dirt that the big question for Stage 1 was which big name would crash out. I don't remember if I mentioned the name I had at the top of the list... Marizio Soler. Mostly I figured cause he's your typical tailgunning climber. But I didn't post it and here you go, he crashes and breaks his wrist.

So, true to form i will make my podium predictions so I can proceed to get those wrong:

1. Valverde
2. Evans
3. Menchov


The only question to me is whether Valverde can go the distance at the Tour.. he hasn't yet. Then again he's done well at the Vuelta, so 3 weeks is doable. But the tour climbs are longer and the pressure is higher.

So it's between Evans & Valverde.. and in my mind it's Valverde's to win unless he cracks. Evan's is the kind of rider that depends on other riders having bad days and following a rider having a great day. If Valverde cracks, Evans will win.

Menchov can't win because he's a pussy. There I said it, because I am one of those obnoxious fans who thinks a Grand Tour winner and potential podium finisher sucks cause he can't be perfect for 21 stages. God I am soooo cool. He'll ride consistently except 1 horrible day.