While we are talking about falling off our bikes...
So it's that time of the year were the cycling know-it-alls (like me) make our tour predictions only to be humiliated by our wrongness.
I have such a bad track record at these that I have tried avoiding it.. but every time I don't post a prediction it turns out right prompting me to post one which turns out wrong.
Case in point.. yesterday I suggested to Stoked-As-Dirt that the big question for Stage 1 was which big name would crash out. I don't remember if I mentioned the name I had at the top of the list... Marizio Soler. Mostly I figured cause he's your typical tailgunning climber. But I didn't post it and here you go, he crashes and breaks his wrist.
So, true to form i will make my podium predictions so I can proceed to get those wrong:
The only question to me is whether Valverde can go the distance at the Tour.. he hasn't yet. Then again he's done well at the Vuelta, so 3 weeks is doable. But the tour climbs are longer and the pressure is higher.
So it's between Evans & Valverde.. and in my mind it's Valverde's to win unless he cracks. Evan's is the kind of rider that depends on other riders having bad days and following a rider having a great day. If Valverde cracks, Evans will win.
Menchov can't win because he's a pussy. There I said it, because I am one of those obnoxious fans who thinks a Grand Tour winner and potential podium finisher sucks cause he can't be perfect for 21 stages. God I am soooo cool. He'll ride consistently except 1 horrible day.