On being Right

One of the things I pride myself on is identifying patterns in people. For example, I've noticed that Paul Krugman is usually correct in his predictions. Donald Luskin, is usually wrong. I use this skill (which I would argue is simply looking at someone's track record) to great affect in deciding whether to trust people when there is a derth of information available to me to do my own research.

Similarly, I wonder why people in general have a hard time following a similar approach. Which made me smile when my girlfriend was defending me in a debate I was having. Basically she said "I don't always understand his (i.e. mine) reasoning and it drives me crazy but I have to admit he usually ends up being right." I will tell you if I am taking a position based on knowledge or if I am just specualting in an area I know little about. The 2 aren't the same. I am rarely wrong in the first case.