Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Old Sawhorses

I just heard the analyst on NPR saying that older voters vote early and younger voters vote later meaning that early returns tend to skew Republican. I don't have a useful link offhand but that old canard has been pretty thoroughly debunked the last 3 election cycles were early votes have heavily skewed liberal, i.e. Democrat.

And I care a lot about local initiatives and elections cause, well, I live here. But I would like to echo Yglesias' point that local elections tend to tell us alot about local conditions and are inferior indicators of "national mood".

I mean, Corzine was a crappy Governor and deserved to be defeated. Democrat or not. And Virginia is a conservative state and NY23 is a republican district. So the results so far are exactly what you'd expect except how poorly Hoffman (Conservative) is doing given the Republican ID of the district.


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