Flandis Prediction Post

Flandis has taken his positive doping case to CAS, which will deliver a ruling in June. Given my sterling track record of predictions I probably should stay away from this one. But, I am also a cyclist which means I am not very smart so here it goes.

CAS upholds Positive Dope ruling.

Why? Well earlier I dissected the arbitors 2-1 ruling that Flandis had indeed doped. While they tossed the results of the test for T:E ratio that started the brouhaha they allowed the results of the test for sythetic testoterone.

The cornerstone of Flandis' defense against the allowed test was that a) it was not a scientifically validated test and b) the test was conducted based on a previous test's false positive and therefore shouldn't have even been conducted.

I think argument b) is a loser in general. It's a legal, not scientific, procedural issue. It does not impact whether the results are valid or not.

Argument a) is much better. It's a scientific issue, and it is clear that Flandis is correct. The test has not been scientifically validated. The problem is that the previous ruling was based on a previous CAS decision to grant the test "scientifically validated" status. Now, Flandis will rightly argue that CAS doesn't get to decide what is valid or not. But, that seems like a losing argument to me since CAS has already decided they do have that power.

I think Flandis' only real chance of "victory" is take the case to a civil court for wrongful termination. The problem there is that a lot of Flandis' own dirty laundry is likely to get aired and the victory may be pyhrric.

All of this is great news for Flandis since I am batting something like 1-19 on predictions.